Issue fifteen | SNP Conference 2026: A party and a country locked in a holding pattern 

A decade on from the decision to leave the EU, and a dozen years since Scotland voted on independence, constitutional issues remain front and centre of political debate north of the border.

 

In a perpetually febrile political landscape, the country is never far from one election campaign or another, Westminster, Holyrood or local.

 

And yet it is the twin effects of those two tumultuous referendum campaigns of the mid-2010s whose combined aftershocks continue to shape much of the political weather.

 

The SNP’s annual conference is a forum at which constitutional issues, specifically Scotland’s place within the UK, are never far from the surface.

 

So to Aberdeen and this year’s gathering, where First Minister John Swinney announced what he billed as the biggest pro-independence initiative by the party since the 2014 referendum.

 

Cynics both inside and outside the independence movement point to the fact that there have been numerous such announcements in the 10 years since the Brexit vote and yet the needle on the dial remains firmly stuck in a constitutional impasse.

 

The unstoppable force of repeated electoral wins and pro-independence majorities at Holyrood continues to collide with the immovable object of a Westminster establishment which holds the legal whip hand over the powers to agree a referendum.

 

Swinney, in his keynote address to the conference, stated his belief that the “stars are aligning” in favour of independence, a view underscored by what he sees as the added heft given to his cause by the election of like-minded leaders in Cardiff and Belfast.

 

In truth, Swinney and the SNP have been helped significantly by Andy Burnham’s less than sure footed handling of the Scottish question since his arrival in Downing Street.

 

The Prime Minister’s recent assertion in the Commons that Scotland was in the same position as Northern Ireland when it comes to a referendum, namely that one will be granted if there is clear and demonstrable wish for one, was quickly walked back by his spokespeople, but the damage was done.

 

It was a blunder which the SNP quickly seized on and will continue to make hay with.  More fundamentally, it was a maladroit moment which speaks to a view that the new PM, for all his avowed devolutionist instincts, doesn’t really “get” Scotland.

 

The twin pillars on which what might be called Burnhamism are founded – his decentralising credo and his matey, everyman persona – have collided with the chastening reality of Scottish constitutional politics.

 

That didn’t stop the PM effectively trying to gatecrash things by staging a visit to central Scotland in the middle of the SNP conference, giving credence to a view from some commentators that Swinney has successfully got under Burnham’s skin.  Kemi Badenoch too, saw fit to journey north for a visit at the same time.

 

It’s a moot point whether these respective forays drew attention away from the SNP by stealing some of Swinney’s conference thunder, or actually enhanced the significance of what the First Minister was saying by drawing attention to it in a UK-wide context.

 

The view among nationalist rank and file members in Aberdeen was certainly the latter, and the UK leadership attention lavished on Scotland was all grist to the mill as far as SNP delegates were concerned.

 

Indeed, there was a revealing moment at the media reception the evening before Swinney’s keynote speech.

 

The event has become something of an institution at SNP conferences in recent times, at which a representative of the Holyrood lobby correspondents spars with the First Minister of the day, with some light-hearted back and forth joshing.

 

This time saw the journalists’ representative gently chide Swinney over suggestions the First Minister had a “secret plan” to overcome Westminster if it continued to block a referendum – the punchline being that the plan seemed to be simply to wait for Burnham to arrive in Downing Street.

 

Swinney, waiting in the wings to deliver his riposte, chuckled away at this and simply nodded his head.

 

No one believes a referendum is just around the corner, but at the same time the SNP genuinely seem to sense that events are moving inexorably in their direction and that the Westminster block on an independence vote is perhaps not quite as solid as has been the case, a feeling strengthened by the fact that any move by Burnham to substantively reopen the Brexit question would leave an impossible inconsistency in saying a Scottish referendum is permanently off-limits.

 

As it stands, most polling shows the country split pretty much down the middle on the question, but with the pro-independence side having the slimmest of leads for the last year or so.

 

The vibe at the conference, in the main hall, the fringe events and in the bars and backrooms was largely upbeat, as might be expected for a party celebrating winning a fifth consecutive term in office, albeit on a reduced share of votes and seats.

 

Swinney himself is a figure clearly rejuvenated by the mandate he received in May’s Scottish Parliament election.  Jibes that he was a caretaker or, worse, an illegitimate occupant of Bute House, clearly stung and so the personal endorsement he was given by the electorate is something he wears with pride.

 

And yet a changing of the guard is still discernible, as bit by bit the SNP’s top team is refreshed and senior figures of previous years depart the stage, reflected in the fact that this was only the second SNP conference since the 1980s at which Nicola Sturgeon was not present.

 

Younger figures such as Stephen Flynn, Mairi McAllan, new Shetland MSP Hannah Mary Goodlad and former Swinney advisor Jack Middleton are all coming to the fore.

 

Policy-wise, the Scottish Government has plenty of challenges, not least pursuing its stated domestic objectives whilst continuing to balance the books.

 

Swinney’s administration has sought to consolidate and expand SNP policies aimed at easing cost of living pressures, and the conference saw a key pledge to bring Scotland’s bus network under public control and expand affordable fares to all parts of the country.

 

There was no detail however on the headline manifesto pledge of a price cap on essential food items, a policy which has sparked strong opposition from the retail sector but which the SNP leadership believes is popular with the public.

 

The conference saw delegates back an effective reopening of North Sea oil and gas drilling, heralding a significant departure from the Sturgeon-era policy of a presumption against new exploration as part of the Scottish Government’s net zero targets, something that has been particularly unpopular in and around Aberdeen itself given the impact on local jobs and economic prospects.

 

There were also murmurings of discontent from some members at the Government’s radical plans for public service reform by slashing the number of health boards, local councils and other public bodies in a streamlining exercise aimed at saving billions of pounds whilst also delivering more efficient public services.

 

That challenge will be one of the defining ones of the next five-year term of SNP governance, and how the party manages it will go a long way to determining their longer-term ambitions for the country.

 

The SNP conference in recent years has been held at the cavernous P&J Live arena, a venue normally playing host to rock concerts and which is located right next to Aberdeen Airport – perhaps an appropriate venue for a party and a country which seem stuck in a constitutional holding pattern.

 

Stuart Nicolson is a former Scottish Government advisor and First Minister’s spokesperson 

 

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