Issue nine | When Birnam Wood Moves: The Fall of Starmer and the Rise of Burnham 

Andy Burnham’s victory in Makerfield has triggered a political earthquake. A new Labour era is already taking shape. Keir Starmer has confirmed he will resign as Prime Minister following Andy Burnham’s extraordinary victory in the Makerfield by-election in a constituency that, in its demographic sympathy for Nigel Farage, was precisely the kind of ground Labour had been losing ground in recently.

 

Shakespeare’s Macbeth was told he would remain safe until Birnam Wood itself began to march against him. He dismissed the prophecy as impossible until the trees moved when Malcolm’s army cut down branches from Birnam Wood to use as camouflage, making the forest appear to advance.

 

Starmer’s position unravelled with similar speed once the arithmetic of parliamentary loyalty shifted. Like members of Malcolm’s army Labour MPs were moving en masse against the Prime Minister.Cabinet ministers who had stood loyally behind him began, in private, to tell him it was time to name a departure date. As another ousted prime minister once memorably observed, ‘when the herd moves, it moves.’

 

In a dignified address from the steps of Downing Street, the Prime Minister confirmed he would stand down and called on the Labour Party to put in place arrangements to elect a successor.

 

For now, a dwindling circle of Starmerite MPs are floating the name of his right hand man Darren Jones as a continuity candidate. But with former Health Secretary Wes Streeting backing Burnham, the contest appears effectively over before it begins. Most Westminster observers expect Andy Burnham to be confirmed as Prime Minister without a formal leadership ballot by late July.

 

The shape of a Burnham cabinet is already the subject of intense speculation. His team brief that Rachel Reeves will not remain at the Treasury. Ed Miliband is the current frontrunner for Chancellor, though Streeting’s allies are actively pressing the case for a different appointment. The choice will be watched closely: it will be the first and most significant signal about what kind of economic settlement the new administration intends to build.

 

Expect significant jobs for the architects of Burnham’s Westminster comeback: Louise Haigh and Anneliese Midgeley.

 

Louise Haigh, the former Transport Secretary, is understood to be leading transition planning. Anneliese Midgeley, the Knowsley MP and former trade union fixer, has been equally pivotal. Together, they masterminded Burnham’s return to Westminster. Both, notably, felt they were treated carelessly by Starmer and his inner circle. A reminder that in politics, the people you discount rarely forget it.

 

As part of that transition Burnham is expected to outline in a number of speeches over coming weeks the policy direction he hopes to take including on the economy to reassure bond markets there will be fiscal discipline and a substantial growth agenda.

 

The Burnham team want to resist the pressure for an early general election. But the scale of change this new administration is likely to signal on economic policy, pushing for public control of utilities, a new land value tax, bringing adult social care into the NHS, significant constitutional  reform will generate noisy calls from the opposition for a general election.

 

The wood has moved. Westminster is now asking not whether Burnham will govern, but how and for how long the new order can hold.

 

How are the opposition parties preparing for a Burnham government? Our Senior Vice President David Mitchell explains:

 

Conservatives: An opportunity to return to their bread and butter issue – the economy. Burnham is perceived vulnerable here after his comments about Britain ‘being in hock to the bond markets’. Scrutinising Burnham and the next Chancellor’s economic credentials creates a space for the Tories to build back their reputation as custodians of the economy.

 

Reform: Burnham is evidently more popular than Starmer in working class communities in the North. This makes the path to power in 2029 more challenging as Burnham’s personal appeal brings some ex labour voters back into the fold. The Party will push hard on calling for an immediate general election, which would deliver swathes of Reform MPs into the next Parliament.

 

Lib Dems: ‘Wait and see’ approach. Most focused on how Burnham positions the government on Europe and immigration. Believe if he does change tack this is an opportunity for the Lib Dems to accentuate the differences. A Burnham move to the left could help to cement the LD’s as the exclusive centrist party in UK politics.

 

What does this mean for your organisation? The political landscape is shifting at a rapid rate. This represents engagement opportunities to shape the thinking of Burnham’s top team as they spend the next few weeks setting out their policy agenda. For opposition engagement, it’s an opportunity to put your key asks on the political agenda.

 

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