Issue six | Starmer survives - but for how long? 

A government that swept to power with a commanding majority now finds itself in crisis. Can the Prime Minister weather the storm, or has Labour’s moment already passed?

 

It beggars belief that barely 18 months after a landslide electoral victory, Keir Starmer’s tenure as Labour Prime Minister should appear so precarious. What ought to have been a period of confident governance has instead descended into a succession of self-inflicted wounds that have left the administration reeling and its opponents emboldened.

 

The decision to abolish the winter fuel payment – unveiled as the government’s debut policy – immediately alienated pensioners and handed ammunition to critics. The subsequent move to apply full-whack inheritance tax to farmers’ estates provoked fury in rural constituencies, while the “freebie scandal” raised uncomfortable questions about ministerial probity. An apparent failure to thoroughly vet the appointment of Ambassador to the US has compounded the sense of a government in crisis. Together, these errors have created political space for Nigel Farage’s untested Reform UK to surge in opinion polls.

 

The past week has seen Downing Street lose both its Chief of Staff – the hitherto all-powerful Morgan McSweeney – and its Director of Communications, Tim Allan. Rumours now circulate that the Cabinet Secretary may be next through the door. The exodus suggests an operation struggling to impose narrative control or strategic coherence on a government that appears increasingly reactive rather than reformist.

 

It was only weeks ago that the Prime Minister stood before the nation promising that 2026 would be the year Britain “turned a corner,” when the government’s fortunes would improve and its programme begin to bear fruit. Yet here in February, Starmer finds himself not planning for vindication but fighting for his political life. His assurance to Labour MPs on Monday night – that he has “never yet lost a fight” reveals a man defiant and still determined to carry on.

 

Westminster had earlier descended into frenzy when news broke that Anas Sarwar, Labour’s Scottish leader, had called for Starmer to resign. Scottish Labour figures have for some time been alarmed by polling that threatens their prospects in May’s Scottish Parliament elections. Sarwar’s intervention appeared to many observers as the moment when discontent might crystallise into open revolt.

 

Yet the anticipated domino effect of Cabinet resignations failed to materialise. What remains of the Downing Street political operation swung into action, extracting public oaths of loyalty from ministers. All obliged. No one volunteered to martyr themselves in the manner of a modern-day Thomas More. Soon enough, would-be pretenders to the crown could gauge which way the wind was blowing and offered their support to the Prime Minister. By teatime, Labour MPs were queuing to offer fulsome backing. Keir Starmer lives to fight another day.

 

But the reprieve may prove temporary. A challenging by-election in Greater Manchester looms within weeks, followed by difficult local government elections and the Scottish and Welsh parliamentary contests in May. The debate about Starmer’s future seems certain to rumble on, a chronic condition rather than an acute crisis, sapping energy and authority from a government that can ill afford to be diminished.

 

The Mechanics of Survival

 

Labour MPs, unlike their Conservative counterparts, do not routinely practise regicide – in large part because the party’s rulebook makes it remarkably difficult to execute. The procedures for removing a sitting leader are cumbersome and require significant institutional support. Labour MPs have to openly declare their support for a rival not cast a vote of no confidence in the cosy confines of a secret ballot. All indications suggest Keir Starmer – the former senior lawyer understanding the implications of Labour’s rule book has no intention of stepping down voluntarily. He is calling the bluff of malcontents, and thus far that tactic has succeeded.

 

The question is whether circumstances will permit him to continue doing so. Much depends on electoral performance in the months ahead and whether the government can demonstrate tangible progress on the issues that dominate voter concerns.

 

The Succession Question

 

Should Starmer fall, or choose to depart, the succession remains uncertain. Wes Streeting, the telegenic Health Secretary, is frequently mentioned as a front-runner, but his perceived “Blairism” alienates some of the parliamentary party and trade union movement. Angela Rayner, the former Deputy Prime Minister, commands genuine affection among grassroots members and possesses undeniable charisma, but unresolved HMRC issues currently cloud her prospects.

 

Andy Burnham, the self-styled “king of the north,” enjoys considerable appeal but faces the not inconsiderable obstacle of not actually being an MP. Al Cairns, the new MP and former Royal Marine who has garnered attention in recent months, is rumoured to harbour ambitions for the top job but lacks political experience. Yvette Cooper, the Foreign Secretary, has contested leadership elections before and commands the respect of colleagues, might fancy her chances again.

 

The absence of consensus among MPs regarding Starmer’s successor paradoxically strengthens his position. Regicide requires not merely discontent but a plausible alternative. At present, Labour lacks one.

 

The Path Forward

 

The government’s immediate challenge is to demonstrate delivery on the fundamentals: cost of living, NHS performance, and immigration control. These remain the issues that determine voting intentions, and on them Labour’s fate will ultimately rest. The administration insists it is making progress, yet somehow struggles to communicate effectively – a failure of presentation that has become characteristic of this government.

 

The economic indicators offer grounds for cautious optimism. Inflation is likely to fall to around two per cent in coming months. Further interest rate cuts appear probable, and growth may return to the economy. An improved economic outlook could transform the political landscape, allowing Labour to claim vindication for its policies and patience from the electorate.

 

But economics alone will not suffice. The government must also recover its sense of purpose and competence, demonstrating that it possesses not merely good intentions but the capacity to govern effectively. That will require not just personnel changes but a fundamental reset in how Downing Street operates – more strategic, less reactive, clearer in its priorities and more confident in its communication.

 

Keir Starmer has survived this week’s challenge. Whether he can survive the months ahead remains an open question. What is clear is that the political weather has turned decidedly inclement, and the forecast offers little prospect of early improvement.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

 

Former Labour MP for Leicester South, Jonathan was a long-standing senior member of Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet and played a central role in the Party’s 2024 general election campaign. 

 

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