Issue twelve | Did Labour conference offer 'Hope Again'? 

It’s 10 weeks since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister and he used the Conference stage to set out again his view that Britain had been on the wrong path over the past forty years along with a radical direction he wants to take the country.

 

It was arguably the most consequential Labour leader’s speech in years. Self consciously offering ‘hope again’, the Labour leadership is deliberately drawing a distinction between them and the ‘miserabilist Starmer years’ and ‘40 years of failure’.

 

The Labour faithful left the Conference in good spirits. Politico’s Poll of Polls going into conference had Labour in first place with 26%, a 4% bounce since Burnham was elected leader. The upturn has coincided with Reform who have been hit by several scandals losing altitudes. Labour MPs tell us s class communities in the north are giving Labour a second chance due to Burnham’s personal appeal.

 

Burnham’s critics have argued that whilst he is clearly a more effective communicator and charismatic leader than Keir Starmer, his leadership to date had been based on ‘vibes’ and that he is seeking to please everyone. The Prime Minister addressed this head on by setting the tone in Liverpool with his appearance on the Laura Kuenssberg programme, in which he unveiled his plan for a national care service. The scale of his ambition is such that this would be a be on par with for the NHS.

 

How would a Labour government committed to the fiscal rules and to its 2024 manifesto deliver this vision to tackle social care? First, the national care service would be brought forward if Labour won a second term and secondly, in another major development, Labour would adjust the pension triple lock to help fund the policy. This is a significant move, as it breaks away from the political consensus around maintaining the triple lock. Political parties of all stripes have viewed removing the triple lock as a high stake electoral gamble given pensioners are the demographic that will turn out come election time. In his leader’s speech Burnham acknowledged that he may pay a political price for it but that he would “push through the pain barrier and rip the plaster off.”

 

The rest of conference was also fizzing with policy ideas from increased public ownership of housing, energy and water to electoral reform. The latter is politically noteworthy given Burnham’s known support for proportional representation. This may indicate he has an eye on a potential coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Speaking at a dinner for Weber Shandwick, Mail on Sunday political commentator Dan Hodges said the PM may offer Ed Davey proportional representation as part of a coalition deal. One area where the PM went further than expected was on the EU, especially as he had previously steered away from the topic given his heavily leave-voting Makerfield constituency. Speaking about the UK’s future relationship with the EU, he said all options were on the table including rejoining.

 

So the policy proposals played well with the Labour membership, but how are the early impressions of the Burnham administration going down on the doorstep? Multiple MPs the Weber Shandwick team spoke to at conference described it as night and day between the reaction they were receiving from voters under Starmer and the enthusiasm for Burnham. One MP described the view on the doorstep as, “We like Andy and we want him to do well.” Given the goodwill the PM has, it is understandable why this conference has seen some of the most radical ideas announced in recent years.

 

The late night drinking holes were alive with gossip and speculation as to when a General Election might be called. Burnham had ruled out a snap election, but speculation persists that May 2027 or May 2028 are real possibilities. The minority view is that Burnham will go for an election in the spring. The argument is that over time Burnham’s initial popularity will fade, particularly in the face of challenging fiscal decisions to come, so he should go sooner rather than later. This theory also argues that Labour should capitalise whilst the right of British politics is divided. With Reform’s decline in the polls gaining momentum and early signs of a recovery from the Conservatives in the offing, the view is that in a couple of years’ time Labour could face a Conservative Party that the electorate is willing to consider. The prize would be a fresh mandate for Burnham, who would not be constrained by the 2024 General Election manifesto. However, those supporting an election in 2028 or 2029 argue that it would be a fatal mistake to risk 170 seat majority. On the eve of Labour conference a YouGov MRP poll showed Labour would secure 241 seats, a far cry from the 326 seats required for a majority. Even combined with Liberal Democrat support this would not be sufficient to form a Government with a working majority.

 

The major hurdle that this Labour Government soon has to contend with is the fiscal position and decisions in the upcoming October budget. The PM has committed to increase defence spending, move towards public ownership of essentials and create a national care service. Given the fiscal constraints, the question is how does a Labour Government pay for it all? Economists predict the chancellor will have to increase taxes.  One Westminster insider told Weber Shandwick that if this is a “steady as she goes” budget then that could be a sign that the PM is gearing up for an early election. On the other hand, if the Budget is loaded with tax increases then we could be looking at a 2029 poll, at which point the PM and the Chancellor will hope to be in a position to offer electoral giveaways.

 

The mood at Labour conference was the most positive in years with the policy agenda warmly welcomed by members. The test now is can the party take the message of “hope again” to the country.

 

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